🔥 Metal Market Trend Updates! 🔥

Hey everyone! 🌟 Hope you’re thriving out there! This month, we’re unpacking the freshest trends in the steel and scrap metal industry. 🎉 Buckle up—it’s a rollercoaster of market shifts, each twist revealing a new opportunity. Let’s dive in! 🎯

📊 Month-to-Month Breakdown 📈Here’s the scoop on what’s moving the needle:

Bear Case 🐻

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped from 44,544 to 43,191 (-3.04%). A slight dip, but still plenty of runway. 📉

• Crude Oil: Slid from $72.53 to $68.46/barrel (-5.61%). Energy’s cooling off—could signal shifts ahead. 🛢️

Bull Case 🚀

• Pig Iron: Jumped from $424 to $460/MT (+8.49%). Steady upward pressure here. 💪

• HRC Prices: Surged from $740 to $915/ton (+23.65%). Hot-rolled coil is heating up! 🔥

• Copper: Climbed from $4.23 to $4.56/LB (+7.80%). A solid gain for this heavyweight. 🪙

• Shred Feed: Rose from $192 to $222/NT (+15.62%). Scrap’s on the move! 🚚

• 80:20 HMS: Ticked up from $355 to $369/MT (+3.94%). Modest, but notable. 📈

📌 Key Insights to Chew OnUS steelmakers and suppliers are facing a challenging March as President Trump’s proposed 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada threaten to disrupt the ferrous scrap market. 🇺🇸 With the tariffs kicking in today, mills are ramping up production to meet surging steel demand following Trump’s earlier 25% steel tariffs, due March 12. 🏭

The import tax could tighten an already strained scrap supply, potentially driving prices up by $30-50/gross ton or more. 💸 While tariffs could add over $100/gt to key scrap grades, it’s unclear who’ll bear the cost. A shift in US scrap from exports to domestic mills may ease some pressure, with 2024 imports from Canada and Mexico averaging 270,000gt/month. 🌎

As major suppliers redirect sales to the competitive US market, plate and structural scrap remains more available in the south due to demolition activity. 🏗️ However, the uncertainty around these tariffs keeps the industry on edge. ⚖️

For the speculators out there: CME Busheling futures for April are sitting pretty at $530/GT today. That’s an $80/GT gap between February and April. 📅 Think this rally’s got legs—or ready to fade? Now’s the time to place your bets! 💡

Here’s the kicker: we’re in a supply-driven scrap market right now, and history tells us these tend to have “skinny legs”—they don’t stick around long. ⏳ Mill operating rates are hovering at 79% today. Rewind six months to 78% rates, and HRC was lounging at $700/ton—now it’s flexing at $900/ton. 💪 Markets feel a little unhinged, don’t they? Predicting what’s next is anyone’s guess, but the disconnect is real. 🤔

What do you think—bullish or bearish vibes ahead? Drop your thoughts below! 👇 Let’s keep the convo rolling. 🗣️

#steelindustry #scrapmarket #tradetariffs #markettrends #supplychain

Monthly Scrap Factor Report March25.pdf

Download PDF • 2.70MB

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A Scrap Life's Bulls vs Bears Podcast will be out soon, check out the link below.