Hope you’re all doing great! 🌟 This month, we’re diving into the latest trends in the steel and scrap metal industry. Get ready for a wild ride through market ups and downs, each one telling a story of opportunity.
📊 Month-to-Month Analysis 📈
Bull Case 🚀
📈 Iron Ore: Up from $92.98/MT to $103.78/MT (11.6% increase).
📈 Crude Steel Production: Up from 74.1% to 74.7% (.6% increase).
Bear Case 🐻
📉 Shanghai Steel Rebar Prices: Down from 3,417 to 3,290 CNY (3.7% decrease).
📉 Copper Prices: Down from $4.49 to $4.34 / lb. (3.3% decrease).
📉 Nickel Prices: Down from $17,529 to $15,969/ton (8.9% decrease).
📉 HMS 1&2 (80/20) cfr Turkey: Down from $380.00 to $368.83/ton (2.9% decrease).
📌 Noteworthy Observations 🧐
As we head into November, the excitement from October's gains has cooled off a bit. The looming election is casting a shadow over the industry, and everyone is on edge. US flat-rolled steelmakers are coming back from outages, and some major mills are hiking hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot prices to set a price floor.
There are still a few outages scheduled for November and December, including a big one in the Detroit area. But overall, most steelmakers are expected to return, which should help support demand. On the flip side, the export market has taken a nosedive, losing all the gains from late September and early October. Turkish 80:20 import prices have dropped from October highs of $26 per ton this month.
In the US, big players like Nucor and US Steel have bumped up HRC prices by $20-30 per short ton to establish a floor. The Argus US Midwest HRC assessment fell to $700 per short ton, down $15 since early October but still up from the summer lows of $650. Lead times are holding steady at around 4.5 weeks.
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A Scrap Life's Bulls vs Bears Podcast will be out soon, check out the link below.
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