Hope you’re all doing great! 🌟 This month, we’re diving into the latest trends in the steel and scrap metal industry. Get ready for a wild ride through market ups and downs, each one telling a story of opportunity.
📊 Month-to-Month Analysis 📈
Bull Case 🚀
⏳ USA HRC Lead Times: Jumped from 3.5 weeks to 6 weeks mid-month, ending at 4.5 weeks.
📈 USA Hot Roll Coil Steel: Up from $654 to $725/ton (10.9% increase).
📈 Shanghai Steel Rebar Prices: Up from 3,005 to 3,137 CNY (4.4% increase).
📈 Steel Utilization Rates: 80.2% highest rate year to date.
📈 Aluminum Prices: Up from $2,300 to $2,486/ton (8.1% increase).
Bear Case 🐻
📉 Mill Outages: 1.5 million tons of estimated steel production outages in the USA are coming up between now and November.
📉 Turkey 80/20 HMS: Down from $392.70/MT to $369.33/MT (3.5% decrease).
📌 Noteworthy Observations 🧐
Steel Dude on Twitter shares his outlook: "The damage they (China) have caused is being felt globally though and prices are sliding in other countries. For example, as I had expected export scrap prices have seen a correction (at a faster pace than I had initially expected) and domestic market sales volumes in steel-producing countries such as India, Turkey, Taiwan, Vietnam, Iran, Saudi Arabia, US and EU are pretty much messed up for now.
These (USA) dudes are still comfortable compared to their colleagues from the EU but that comfort zone has narrowed down as of last week. The situation is pretty much like last year. Mills are preparing to go under scheduled maintenance and reduce output in order to prevent prices from declining any further. In layman’s terms, it means less appetite for scrap and the amount of procured volumes by electric arc furnace mills will shrink during the next 4 – 6 weeks. Now the question is, how will the scrap dudes handle the situation? They are the expert and really good at controlling the market but cutting collection is usually how it is done so that supply is limited to keep prices somewhat stable. regardless, a decline seems inevitable to me."
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